LA Fires

Fire Recap

Intro, Reporting from X, Grok Summary of Leadership Failures, 5 minutes to evacuate - what do you take?

Day Three

I am safe & have yet to hear otherwise from friends. I live down in Venice and left LA yesterday morning to go to San Francisco. Air quality in the area will be bad for a bit.

Unfortunately, we still have red flag warnings through Friday. The Palisades fire has reached over 17K acres, and is still at 0% containment. The Eaton Fire in Pasadena has reached 10K acres, and is still at 0% containment. The Palisades fire is singlehandedly the most destructive fire in the history of Los Angeles, with early estimates reaching over $57B in damage.

→ Watch Duty has been the best resource for real-time fire tracking.

I know many, MANY, people who have absolutely lost their homes. Homes they just moved into over the weekend with their growing families, homes they were renting, dream homes they were excited to build, homes they’ve lived in their whole lives, blocks where their whole extended families lived, the stories continue..

The entire town of the Palisades has sadly been taken out, schools, churches, synagogues, offices, grocery stores, libraries, etc. It’s unfathomable.

The most horrifying part? As of last night there were reports of arson. The Hollywood fire, and Studio City fire were reported as potential arson. Criminals are then targeting evacuated homes and looting them. Looting them! Anarchy. Complete evil.

Leadership in California and Los Angeles needs to go.

These are barbaric errors that should be treated as crime.

What the F comes next?

No idea. Some of these homes don’t have insurance policies, I can’t imagine anything will be rebuilt for at least a year or two, and the entire area? Maybe 10 years. Construction will be strained in LA, resources will be spread thin, rentals will probably get scooped up fast, home values south of the hills will increase.

Will people move out of LA? Not sure. Will we be able to afford it? Not sure. I still love it there and plan to stay. This was pure incompetency from state & local leadership. Absolutely unacceptable. This is going to completely reshape the housing pricing dynamics of LA, which were already inflated.

What happens to the people who lost their homes? Where do they go? How do they recoup the value of the properties? Is it possible? Is it worth it to rebuild? Can they afford it?

What about all of the renters who were excited to make the next step in their lives and buy a house? Will property values be make it possible?

What schools do the children go to?

What about the local businesses?

Insurance??

The Palisades is going to be a park, Malibu is just going to be a scenic drive, and who knows what’s in store for the hills. It’s all incredibly upsetting. I can’t imagine many will be comfortable buying property or living there again.

That said, I hope we can rebuild. And rebuild stronger. We need to support and take care of each other.

Reporting from X

For context of the expanse of the Palisades spread, *celebrities* who’ve lost their homes:

The red is still active fire, the rest of this map is almost entirely burnt down.

Grok Summary of Leadership Failures:

Budget Cuts:

• Los Angeles Fire Department (LAFD): Mayor Karen Bass faced significant criticism for cutting the LAFD's budget by $17.6 million for the fiscal year 2024-2025. This cut was seen as particularly detrimental given the known fire risks in LA, especially with the season known for wildfires. Critics argue this might have reduced the department's capacity to respond effectively to the scale of fires experienced.

Misallocation of Funds:

• There were accusations that funds were not properly allocated towards fire prevention and response. For example, resources were reallocated from disaster preparedness to other areas, possibly due to political priorities or mismanagement. This included the state's broader policy under Newsom, where funds intended for fire prevention were allegedly not used as effectively as they could have been.

DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion) Prioritization:

• Under the leadership of Mayor Bass and the state administration under Governor Newsom, there was a push towards DEI initiatives within departments like the LAFD. Critics, particularly on social media, have argued that this focus might have led to a dilution of resources and attention from core firefighting capabilities, suggesting that while important, the timing and emphasis could be seen as misaligned with immediate public safety needs during such crises.

Lack of Water in Hydrants and Reservoirs:

• One of the most visible failures was the lack of water pressure in fire hydrants in Los Angeles during the fires. This was attributed to reservoirs not being adequately maintained or filled, potentially due to mismanagement or lack of foresight. The situation was exacerbated by the high demand for water during firefighting, leading to dry hydrants in critical areas. Governor Newsom was criticized for not ensuring that water management policies supported fire response capabilities.

Political Failures:

• Karen Bass: Bass's absence during the initial stages of the fire outbreak, as she was on a trip to Ghana, was heavily criticized. Her return was marked by a confrontation with the media where she was accused of neglecting her duties at a critical moment. Her leadership was questioned not only for this absence but also for the budget cuts and perceived lack of preparation for the fires, which were somewhat predictable given weather forecasts.

• Gavin Newsom: Newsom was lambasted for his approach to environmental management, particularly in relation to forest and brush management. His administration was accused of not doing enough to mitigate fire risks through preventive measures like controlled burns or clearing underbrush, despite having funds allocated for such purposes. His deflection of responsibility regarding the water issues in hydrants to local officials was also seen as a leadership failure. Moreover, his public demeanor during the crisis was perceived by some as lacking in empathy or urgency.

My take?

This is just the tip of the iceberg for incompetent leadership across the U.S., it isn’t until you’re met with disaster and a real emergency do you see pure lack of ability for preparedness, strong leadership, and management.

The public is not going accept it anymore.

We should be auditing leadership across the board.

And by the way, we should not be intimidated by stronger leaders. No more soft picks for fluffy reasons, we need real leaders with proven track records.

Budget Cuts From Friend of Sourcery, Mason O’Hanlon

Link to Mason’s post: 5 minutes - What do you take?

Los Angeles County is the home to ~10M people. If it were a country, its GDP would be $1.3T+, ranking it as the 19th largest economy in the world if it were a nation. The County operates with a $45B+ annual budget.

California is the home to ~39M people. If it were a country, its GDP would be $4T+, ranking it as the 4th largest economy in the world if it were a nation. The state operates with a ~$300B annual budget.

People have pointed to this chart, suggesting that budget reallocation should be blamed. Specifically, people are fixated on decreasing the LAFD budget by $17.6M while increasing the LAPD budget by $126M.

At face value, this chart is concerning but is blindly misguided for several reasons, but I’ll list three that quickly come to mind:

1. Increased Police Funding Is a Response to Necessity, Not Luxury

   1. Violent crime in LA is 70% higher than the California average, at 8.38 per 1,000 residents, compared to the state’s 4.99 per 1,000.

   2. Robberies have risen by 9.5% Y/Y, and car theft is at its highest level since 2006.

   3. LA is only safer than 7% of U.S. cities, necessitating increased police presence.

2. The LAPD Budget Increase Is Proportionate and Practical

   1. The LAPD budget grew from ~$1.9B (2023-2024) to ~$2B (2024-2025), +6% Y/Y.

   2. Given the escalating rates of crime and violence, this increase is not excessive but pragmatic.

3. Misrepresentation of Budget Changes

   1. While the LAFD budget decreased by $17.6M, this represents -2% Y/Y—a marginal adjustment, not a drastic cut.

   2. Critiques often ignore the broader context, such as newly approved initiatives like:

      1. $730M to combat homelessness.

      2. $300M for "Care First, Jails Last" (Measure J).

         1. This is a separate note, but I find it somewhat strange that this large budget is passed when there are incarcerated firefighters risking their lives for $1 per hour. Should we not better support this existing demographic?

Blaming a $126M increase in the LAPD budget without acknowledging the newly allocated $1B+ allocated to other initiatives is shortsighted and selective bias.