OpenAI $500B Valuation + GPT-5
Thrive Capital, Vulcan Elements, Jeff Wang CEO of Windsurf, HistoSonics, Firefly Aerospace, Genie 3, Google AI, Rillet, Clay, Kontext
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Hello from LA
ICYMI: OpenAI is reportedly exploring a secondary share sale that could value the company at $500B.. representing a substantial increase from their recent $300B valuation secured during a $40 billion funding round earlier this year.
The most underrated investor in OpenAI? Thrive Capital.
“Concentrate on the most exceptional businesses, & hold onto them over time” - Joshua Kushner
OpenAI rounds reportedly led by Thrive Capital:
Aug 2025: $500 Billion *rumored
Oct 2024: $157 Billion
Feb 2024: $86 Billion
Jan 2023: $29 Billion
Note: Figures are based on round valuations
As for GPT-5 sentiment? Read more below.
Musings
AI
The Future of Commerce is Run by AI Agents
Deep Dive → Winners & Losers
Google
Genie-3: Google’s new AI model creates video game worlds in real time
Google partners with I&M & TVA to expand use of demand response at its AI data centers → lessen wait times for data centers seeking grid connection
Meta taps PIMCO, Blue Owl for $29 billion Louisiana data center expansion project
Underrated Interview
Jeff Wang, CEO of Windsurf: M&A Turbulence, Human Leadership, & the Flight Ahead
More
Startup of the week
Kontext, a San Francisco-based advertising platform for AI chatbots and GenAI apps, raised $10M in seed funding led by M13, with participation from Torch Capital and Parable VC. Kontext lets brands like Amazon, Uber, and Canva place real-time, context-aware ads inside chatbots such as Media Search, DeepAI, & Pixel Chat; early data shows a 2–3x boost in click-through rate & up to 30% stronger return on ad spend versus traditional channels.
All Eyes on OpenAI
Last week’s GPT-5 launch showed just how volatile OpenAI’s stock could be if it were publicly traded. See below.
After the second demo in their release, Kalshi markets took a dive as X chatter & retail sentiment turned negative.. and it has yet to recover. It’s an interesting simulation of what could happen if OpenAI pursued an IPO: highly hyped model launches = volatility (look no further than Tesla’s stock for this). Now, if only they could throw in another Jony Ive x Sama film to push it back to the top, or Gwyneth Paltrow? FWIW, actual commercial sentiment toward the model seems solid. Buy the dip?
BTW Idk what’s more underrated here, the $7M+ in trading volume just 12 days into the month, or this dramatic reverse-Uno situation.
Check out Kalshi → The largest prediction market & the only legal platform in the US where you can trade directly on the outcomes of future events (sports, politics, weather, AI, etc).
Top Interviews
Altimeter Leads $65M Series A in the Rarest Company On Earth: Vulcan Elements
Nuclear Race to Power Superintelligence: Valar Atomics, Fuse, Not Boring
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P.S. Do you even read the deals section??
Last Week (8/4-8/8):
Relevant deals include the 70+ deals across stages below. I've categorized the deals below into seven categories, Fintech, Care, Enterprise / Consumer, HardTech, Sustainability, Acquisition/PE, and Fund Announcements, and ordered from later-stage rounds to early-stage rounds.
VC Deals
Fintech:
- Blue J, a Toronto, Canada-based generative-AI tax research platform, raised $122 million in Series D funding. Oak HC/FT and Sapphire Ventures led the round and were joined by Intrepid Growth Partners and existing investors Ten Coves Capital and CPA.com.
- Rillet, a New York City-based AI-powered enterprise resource planning company, raised $70 million in Series B funding. A16z and ICONIQ led the round and were joined by Sequoia, Oak HC/FT, and others.
- NG.CASH, a São Paulo-based digital bank, raised $26.5 million in Series B funding. New Enterprise Associates led the round and was joined by Quantum Light, Monashees, Andreessen Horowitz, and others.
- Tako, a São Paulo-based developer of AI agents that run payroll and workforce operations, raised $18 million in funding from Ribbit Capital, a16z, and founders.
- OLarry, a San Mateo and San Jose, Calif.-based AI-powered tax firm, raised $10 million in Series A funding. TTV Capital led the round and was joined by Walkabout Ventures and Marin Sonoma Impact Ventures.
Care:
- Strand Therapeutics, an MIT spinout developing mRNA-based therapeutics, raised $153m in Series B funding. Kinnevik led, joined by Regeneron Ventures, Iconiq, Amgen Ventures, Alex Gorsky's family office, JIC-VGI, LG Technology Ventures, Gradiant Corp., and insiders FPV Ventures, Playground Global, Eli Lilly, ANRI, and Potentum.
- Chai Discovery, a San Francisco-based AI-powered molecule engineering company, raised $70 million in Series A funding. Menlo Ventures led the round and was joined by Yosemite, DST Global Partners, SV Angel, Avenir, DCVC, and others.
- Positive Development, a McLean, Va.-based provider of developmental therapy for children with autism, raised $51.5 million in Series C funding. aMoon Fund, B Capital, and Flare Capital Partners led the round and were joined by Healthworx, Digitalis Ventures, and others.
- August Health, a San Francisco-based electronic health record platform for senior living experts, raised $29 million in Series B funding. Base 10 Partners led the round and was joined by General Catalyst, Matrix Partners, and others.
- Elion, a New York City-based AI-powered research and intelligence platform for health care technology, raised $9.3 million in seed funding. NEA led the round and was joined by Cedars Sinai Health Ventures, TMV, Scrub Capital, and Alumni Ventures.
- Translucent AI, a New York City-based developer of AI-powered financial analyst software for health care operators, raised $7 million in seed funding. NEA led the round and was joined by Virtue, FPV, and Redesign Health.
- Tracelight, a London, U.K.-based developer of AI technology for financial modeling, raised $3.6 million in seed funding. Chalfen Ventures led the round and was joined by Acequia Capital, Inovo, EF, and angel investors.
- Resolvd AI, a Brooklyn, N.Y.-based developer of technology designed to automate reconciliation workflows in the health care supply chain and IT operations, raised $1.6 million in pre-seed funding from Spice Capital, Betaworks, Factorial Capital, and angel investors.
Enterprise/Consumer:
- Decart, a real-time GenAI research lab, raised $100m at a $3.1b valuation from Benchmark, Sequoia Capital, Zeev Ventures, and Aleph VC.
- Clay, a New York City-based AI go-to-market development platform, raised $100 million in Series C funding. CapitalG led the round and was joined by Meritech Capital, Sequoia Capital, First Round Capital, BoxGroup, Boldstart, and Sapphire Ventures.
- Lyric, a Sunnyvale, Calif.-based AI-powered supply chain decision making platform, raised $43.5 million in Series B funding. Insight Partners led the round and was joined by Primary Venture Partners, Permanent Capital Ventures, VMG Partners, PSP Growth, and NewBuild Venture Capital.
- Lorikeet, a New York City-based developer of AI-powered customer concierge software, raised $35 million in Series A funding. QED Investors led the round and was joined by Blackbird, Square Peg, Skip Capital, Capital49, Operator Partners, Airtree, and Athletic Ventures.
- Kustomer, a Short Hills, N.J.-based CX platform for brands, raised $30m in Series B funding. Norwest led, joined by Battery Ventures, Redpoint Ventures, and Boldstart.
- Pantomath, a Cincinnati, Ohio-based AI-powered automated data operations platform, raised $30 million in Series B funding. General Catalyst led the round and was joined by existing investors Sierra Ventures, Bowery Capital, and Epic Ventures.
- Tavily, a New York City-based search layer for AI applications, raised $25 million across seed and Series A rounds. Insight Partners and Alpha Wave Global led the $20 million Series A.
- Kontext, a San Francisco-based advertising platform for AI chatbots and Generative AI apps, raised $10M in seed funding. M13 led the round and was joined by Torch Capital and Parable VC.
- August, a New York City-based AI platform designed for midsize law firms, raised $7 million in funding. NEA and Pear VC led the round and were joined by Afore Capital and others.
- Qbeast, a Bellevue, Wash.-based data infrastructure company, raised $7.6 million in seed funding. Peak XV's Surge led the round and was joined by HWK Tech Investment and Elaia Partners.
- Ostra Security, an Eden Prairie, Minn.-based managed security provider, raised $2.6 million in a Series A extension. General Catalyst and Rally Ventures led the round and were joined by Jeff Cowan at CapitalFour.
HardTech:
- QuamCore, a Herzliya, Israel-based quantum computing company, raised $26 million in Series A funding. Sentinel Global led the round and was joined by Arkin Capital and existing investors Viola Ventures, Earth & Beyond Ventures, Surround Ventures, Rhodium, and Quantum Leap.
- OpenMind, a San Francisco-based developer of software designed for shared intelligence and coordination between robots, raised $20 million in funding. Pantera Capital led the round and was joined by Ribbit, Coinbase Ventures, HSG, DCG, Pebblebed, Topology, Primitive Ventures, Lightspeed Faction, Anagram, and angel investors.
- Jeh Aerospace, an Atlanta, Ga.-based aerospace manufacturing startup, raised $11 million in Series A funding. Elevation Capital led the round and was joined by General Catalyst.
- Orbital Operations, a Long Beach, Calif.-based orbital vehicle manufacturer, raised $8.8 million in seed funding. Initialized Capital led the round and was joined by Harpoon Ventures, DTX Ventures, Rebel Fund, TRAC VC, Karman Ventures, and others.
- Raise Robotics, a San Francisco-based developer of a robot designed to complete construction tasks, raised $7.8 million in seed funding. MaC Ventures led the round and was joined by Undivided Ventures and existing investors Cybernetix Ventures, Zacua Ventures, and Union Labs.
- Pearl Edison, a Detroit-based general contractor for residential electrification and energy efficiency projects, raised $3.3 million in seed funding. New System Ventures and Commonweal Ventures led the round and were joined by Lightbank and Newlab.
Acquisitions & PE:
- HistoSonics, a Minneapolis developer of liver cancer therapies, agreed to be acquired for $2.25b by an investor group that includes K5 Global, Bezos Expeditions, and Wellington Management. The company previously raised over $300m in VC funding from firms like J&J, Alpha Wave Ventures, Venture Investors, Lumira Ventures, Yonjin Venture, and the State of Wisconsin Investment Board. Those backers got liquidity but retained some of their shares.
- Generous Brands, backed by Butterfly, acquired Health-Ade, a Los Angeles-based kombucha brand, from Manna Tree and First Bev for $500 million.
- Francisco Partners agreed to acquire Elite, a New York City-based legal tech company, from TPG Capital and Thomson Reuters. Financial terms were not disclosed.
IPOs:
- Firefly Aerospace, a Cedar Park, Texas-based space and defense technology company, raised $868 million in an offering of 19.3 million shares priced at $45 on the Nasdaq. The company posted $108 million in revenue for the year ending March 31, 2025.
Funds:
- Dextra Partners, a New York City-based private equity firm, raised $825 million for its seventh fund focused on middle-market companies.
- CRV, a San Francisco and Palo Alto, Calif.-based venture capital firm, raised $750 million for its 20th fund focused on seed and Series A rounds.
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